[Jan. 18, 1960] The Winds of Change (Predictions for the 1960s)

[galacticjourney]

There should be nothing significant about the turn of a decade. After all, years that end in zero are a completely artificial construction. Yet, there is a powerful reductive element to the human psyche that demands that decades be put into descriptive boxes. Perhaps we even shape events to create self-fulfilling prophecies.

Thus, the '30s are the years of Depression (which started in October 1929). The '40s are the War Years, starting with Hitler's September 1939 invasion of Poland. While I cannot think of a single dramatic event that sparked the prosperous and reactionary decade of the 50's, the triggers for the next decade have already sprung. I can already guess the word that will describe the 60's in years to come:

Freedom.

Abroad, the last bastions of colonialism are falling to what British Prime Minister calls "The Winds of Change." In Kenya, for instance, the black majority has just been fully enfranchised, and independence cannot be far away. Talks are underway to allow the Congo to break away from Belgian rule. Independence is scheduled this year for the countries of French West Africa.

In this nation, the "racial problem" is coming to a head; Democratic hopeful Jack Kennedy has called the issue resolved, but this resolution has yet to graduate from the theoretical to the actual. If the '50s was the "Beat" decade, the '60s will be the decade that Beat goes mainstream in a backlash to straight-jacketing conformity.

As a species, we are approaching an even bigger sort of emancipation. This year, or perhaps the next at the latest, the first person will be break free from the prison of the Earth, catapulted into orbit on a tower of flame.

Thus, the '60s will be starkly different from preceding decades. This can't help but have an effect on our science fiction and fantasy.

We can already see the trends: The pulps have died, replaced by more substantial venues—digests and novels. The major magazines have had significant editorial changes (Campbell's Astounding is the rule-proving exception). Women have been allowed into the Men's Club, and several have become luminaries (Katherine MacLean, Judith Merril, Zenna Henderson). As science advances, science fiction must race ahead to make wilder predictions, and the prognosticators will not all be familiar faces. Per Galaxy editor Horace Gold, writers tend to have a 5-10 year lifespan in this business, and that means an influx of new blood, mostly from the ranks of fandom.

This all adds up to a whole new literary ball game with the shackles of convention cast to the wind. Stories will be more nuanced, with more varied characters and more departures from the "gotcha" ending. Its writers will be far more diverse, lending fresh perspectives to the genre. The focus may shift from simple technological problems to broader sociological issues; I imagine much of the writing may prove downright subversive.

Many of the fans and writers have lamented that our genre is not taken seriously enough. As science ficton and fantasy matures, I think we're going to see some truly groundbreaking stories that transcend into the mainstream consciousness. Ours may even someday become the preferred literary genre, the only one equipped to express the hopes and fears of a society whose rate of change continues to accelerate.

Change is scary. Change is exciting. Enjoy the ride.

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Comments

[glymr]

We live in exciting times, with technology connecting us in ways that would have been unfathomable just a hundred years ago. I think you're right - this decade will be very different from anything which has come before. It will be particularly interesting to see how growing up in a time where these new technologies surround them constantly will affect the mindset of the generations to come.

[galacticjourney]

Thank you for reading and commenting. Let's hope the tone remains optimistic!

Predictions

[victoria_silverwolf]

Thank you for some very interesting thoughts.

I might guess that the 1950's will be called the Cold War decade. Not that this conflict is anywhere near over, of course, but it seems to be slowly settling down into a state of uneasy co-existance. Khrushchev is certainly preferable to Stalin, and with the fall of the late Joseph McCarthy maybe both blocs can act a little more sanely.

The 1960's? The Freedom Decade is a good choice, and certainly one we can all hope for. I suspect the struggle for freedom around the world is going to be a long and slow one. I might also suggest the Space Decade, for obvious reasons. (Certainly a Space Race is better than an Arms Race!)

With the co-operation between the two sides during the recent International Geophysical Year, is it too much to hope that someday astronauts and cosmonauts will work together?

Science Fiction in the near future is going to have to deal with space travel in a more realistic way, obviously. Once we know what it's like to walk on the Moon, for example, stories about the Moon are going to have to take that into account.

Aside from that, the direction that "The Magazine of Fantasy and Science Fiction" has taken seems to indicate that what we might call "literary" science fiction and fantasy is going to have a certain vogue. We've already seen a rise in satiric SF, particularly in "Galaxy," so that seems certain to continue to be an important part of the field.

"The Twilight Zone," as simple as many of its concepts are to the reader of SF/F, shows us that serious speculative fiction can exist in the visual media. (It's certainly more sophisticated than, say, "Captain Video.")

(Of course, there's a certain part of me that still gets a kick out of terrible movies like last year's "The Wasp Woman" or "The Killer Shrews," to name just a couple.)

Re: Predictions

[galacticjourney]

All the newspapers are filled with headlines regarding Khruschev's promotion of disarmament initiatives. There's supposed to be a bilateral peace talk in April or May. The Cold War does appear to be thawing.

As for realistic space travel, science fiction always stays a step ahead of the present. A decade ago, all the stories involved jaunts to the Moon. Now, interstellar tales are becoming the norm.

I don't think the digests have so much changed their style as much as becoming the predominant style. Everything else has (gladly) died. We'll see if the digests evolve from this point.

Change

[(Anonymous)]

What a great way to categorize an historical trend. Go freedom!

Re: Change

[galacticjourney]

Thanks for the read, anonymous friend!

[laurose8]

I don't wish to be too pessimistic, but most of the world doesn't seem to be set for increasing liberty. Guatemala is only the most obvious sign of how Latin America is going; Castro's behaviour in Cuba shows how unusual and remarkable a man Cromwell was (this from someone who wears sea-green); South Africa will probably become all the stronger as other colonial powers leave Africa, for example look how Egypt is treating the Palestinians. And in the south Pacific just look at New Guinea.

To complete my pessimism slam, I rather sharethe views of the critic who said sf is not a ghetto but a country club. I'm not sure making it more commercial (and the high brow are just as commercial as Hollywood) will be good for it.

sorry about the edit. The comment posted itself half done.

[galacticjourney]

Progress will always be two steps forward, one and three quarter steps back. For every two independence movements, there will likely be a civil war.

I won't say my glass is half full or empty... but at least I have something to drink out of!